International Journal of Business and Social Science

ISSN 2219-1933 (Print), 2219-6021 (Online) DOI: 10.30845/ijbss

Sudan 2015 General Election: Speculation on the Number of Seats Won by the National Congress Party and Other Parties Based on a Theoretic Game Model
Ahmed Elsheikh M. Ahmed, Leena A. Elsheikh

The primary intent of this paper is two- fold: in part to give a general description of the salient features of the Sudan 2015 general election confined only to the Member of Parliament for the 426 electoral constituencies. Moreover, in view of the complete absence of public opinion polling in Sudan, where no agency specializes in such a practice due to its prohibitive cost, an attempt is made to formulate strategic theoretic game model that helps predict the number of seats won by the incumbent National Congress (NC) party and other minor parties as a group. Two approaches are attempted to speculate on the number of seats won by the NC party and other parties namely: a pure strategy and a mixed strategy both following variant procedures. To ease identification of the strategy that should be pursued by the NC party to maintain reasonable majority and at the same time to open avenues of participation for small parties given its declared election policy which inculcates participation, the statistical concepts of expected value is used. To enrich analysis and lucid discussion, the speculated results of the theoretic game model are compared with the realized results as officially announced by the National Elections Commission (NEC). Based on the model results , the paper recommends: given the prevailing national , regional and international circumstance and the interactive nature of the political process, all parties should communicate, cooperate and stop brawling among each other to prohibit any looming threat that leads to a disintegrating state similar to some neighboring Arab countries and further to seek a safe route that strikes a balanced political power, currently tilted in favor of the NC party rendering it the most dominant. This helps facilitating the merit of diversity rather than imposing a narrow set of political values that do not conform to everyone.

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